Wednesday, March 30, 2011

Mideast rebellion pushes on: Is it 'game over' in Yemen?

Since snipers killed 52 Yemeni protesters a little over a week ago, events in the country have been progressing at a rapid rate. The shootings after Friday prayers drew nationwide condemnation and triggered a series of high profile defections – all of which served to increase the pressure on Ali Abdullah Saleh, the president.

But the most dramatic development in the unfolding Yemeni saga has been the defection of Major General Ali Mohsin, the head of the northwestern military zone and the first armoured division. In a recorded speech aired on Al Jazeera, he declared that he was deploying army units to protect the protesting youth.

Crumbling pillars

Often branded Saleh's right-hand man, Mohsin was thought to have been behind the president's rise to power in 1978 as well as being considered responsible for the victory of the northern forces over separatists in 1994. His defection has removed one of the strongest pillars propping up Saleh's rule and threatens to split the army – the last card Saleh held.

Mohsin's influence extends across many military institutions and it is widely believed that members of army units under his command are more loyal to him than to the president. But his clout is not limited to the military; he has built strong alliances with many tribal chiefs in northern and southern Yemen, as well as being close to the leaders of the Islamic Islah party. It is this network of connections that has enabled him to survive the eliminations that so many senior military figures have fallen victim to over the past two decades of Saleh's rule.

Understandably, Yemenis greeted the news of his support for the youth movement with great enthusiasm, for it simultaneously opened the door for more people to join the protests, while adding to the cracks in the regime. (read more)

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